Let me explain a little about how the UK and European Elections work for those who don't know;
The UK has a "first past the post" system for the election of our local and government representatives (Councillors and Members of Parliament [MPs]). This, in essence, means that each constituency (usually a town, city or part of a city) in a general election has a kind of "mini Presidential election" to decide which of the candidates represents the constituency. The candidate who gets the most votes wins and the other parties have no representation in government for that constituency. That means that a party with 45% of the votes could end up having no representation in government. Local (for local councilors) elections are conducted under similar rules.
The European Election is conducted under a Proportional Representation system. Put simply, the country is divided into large "constituencies" that are allocated a number of seats on the European Parliament depending on a complex algorithm that includes the number of voters. Whilst local authorities do take their own votes, these votes are combined within the "constituency" to decide how many seats a party gets. For hypothetical instance; if a constituency consists of 20 cities, towns and villages and has an allocation of 3 EU Parliamentary seats, a specific town may have an overwhelming majority for one party BUT it is the total votes for the constituency that counts. So you may have, say, a landslide victory for one party in urban areas that can be balanced out by a landslide for another party in rural areas. The result is a "consensus" of the votes in the constituency.
2014 European Election
On Thurday 22nd May 2014, the people of Britain voted in what some see as a historic European Election.
Before the election, there were four major parties representing the UK in Europe; Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat and Greens. A few other parties were also represented, including the Scottish Nationalist, Plaid Cymru (Welsh Nationalist), Democratic Unionist Party (Northern Ireland) Sinn Fein (Irish Nationalist) and British Nationalist Party (BNP).
The order Highest to lowest - Seats (% of vote) of representation for the UK in 2009 was
Conservative 26 (27.7%)
UKIP 13 (16.5%)
Labour 13 (15.7%)
LibDem 11 (13.7%)
Greens 2 ( 8.6%)
BNP 2 ( 6.2%)
Others 5 (11.6%)
The order Highest to lowest - Seats change (% of vote) of representation for the UK in 2014 is
UKIP 24 +11 (27.49%)
Labour 20 +7 (25.40%)
Conservative 19 -7 (23.93%)
Greens 3 +1 ( 7.87%)
LibDem 1 -11 ( 6.87%)
BNP 0 -2 ( 1.41%)
Others 3 -2 ( 7.03%)
The United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) and the Green Party are the only two parties that can rejoyce at the result this year.
It is, though, very important to remember that the UK population historically have not taken the European Elections as seriously as the UK General Elections and that the results do not reflect what will happen at next years election.
What these elections prove is that the UK electorate are very unhappy with the three "major" parties and have used these elections as a platform to express that dissatisfaction.
Those who do take Europe seriously are the main voters in this election and it is clear that they do not want our relationship with Europe to continue as it is. Combined with Local Elections results, which also show a marked increase in the UKIP vote, they show the discontent that has been bubbling since the economic collapse in 2007.
Protest Votes
The mainstream parties have tried to dismiss these results as a "protest" but they need to take account of what is being protested against.
They have pointed to a low turnout to prove that it is simply a "protest", so lets have a look at UK voting trends in European elections;
The UK voting turnout since 1979, according to the House of Commons Library is as follows;
1979 32.4%
1984 32.6%
1989 36.4%
1994 36.4%
1999 24.0%
2004 38.5%
2009 34.7%
2014 34.5%
Average 33.7%
By anyone's estimate, the turnout in 2014 was above the average since 1979. So to blame these results on a "low turnout" is not only disingenuous, it is also untrue.
Party Reaction
The big story of the day is that UKIP, a party that is committed to bringing the UK OUT of the European Union (EU) has won. In every constituency they have made gains and have achieved 27.49% of the votes up from 16.5% of votes on 2009 which, in itself was up from 9.2% of the 2004 vote.
This cannot easily be put down to a "protest vote" since it has been a steady increase since they first stood for the European Elections in 1994 when they only achieved 1% of the vote which jumped to 6.96% the following election in 1999.
So, what are the other paries saying about the rise in UKIP support?
Labour
In order to win an outright victory at the next General Election in 2015, the Labour Party should take note that they are only barely above the Conservatives at a time when the Conservatives are certainly not the flavour of the day.
The Labour Party on Europe has offered a very weak claim that they would hold a refurrendum on whether on Europe only if any further sovereign powers are requested by the EU. This has not proved very attractive to Eurosceptics who feel that we have already given too many of our sovereign powers away to Europe. Note, they only say they would hold a referendum about handing more powers over, not on whether to come out.
One would expect that such a surge toward the only party (UKIP) that stands a realistic prospect of getting EU seats that is promising to bring us OUT of Europe would be of concern to the Labour Party. Many of their own voters have gone to UKIP, as evidenced by UKIP gains in most Labour strongholds - including the North East of England and Scotland where previously their support was weak.
They cannot blame it on defection from the Conservative Party because in those same areas the Conservative vote has held, whilst the Liberal Democrat vote has all-but collapsed since they formed a coalition with the Tories in 2010.
But Ed Miliband, Labour leader, has today stated that he will not change his views and that a refurrendum will not be held under a Labour government unless his criterior is met. He has, therefore ruled out giving the people any choice in the matter.
At this stage, it is very possible that giving people what they have voted for - a choice on Europe - could make or break a party and will almost certainly be a factor in how people vote next year. Miliband, then, is treading a very dangerous path and could end up costing his party the next election if he doesn't look very carefully at voting trends.
Conservatives
The Conservative Party has already declared that they will hold a refurrendum on EU membership in 2017 if they are elected as government after they have negotiated change within the EU. They have also decalared that they will campaign for a "NO" to leaving the EU and so have declared their pro-European stance.
David Cameron has, today, said that the British people have spoken and are wanting to see an EU that is working for Britain. I'm not quite sure what election results he is looking at. How much more clear can an electorate be. The vote was overwhelmingly in favour of a party that is pledged to bring us OUT of Europe, yet he interprets this as a vote for staying IN a "working Europe" ?!?
Liberal Democrats
The LibDems came very close to being completely wiped out in the European Elections. With a starting base of 11 seats and 13.7% of the vote (still behind UKIPs 13 seats and 16.5% of the vote), they ended up halving their vote to 6.87% and losing all but 2 of their seats. In the local elections held the same day, they didn't fair any better, losing 307 council seats across the country whilst UKIP gained 161 seats.
They campaigned as The Party of 'IN', meaning that they would not vote for a refurrendum but would keep the UK in the Eu and work for the EU to change. It was a risky strategy that, unfortunately for them, did not pay off.
Asked if he would now consider resigning or at least look again at their strategy, LibDem leader Nick Clegg said that it had never crossed his mind to resign and that the LibDem party would continue on the same path and remain in coalition with the Tories until the General Election next year.
He continued to assert that they were right to go into a coalition with the Tories and that they had done "what they said they would do" whilst [being the smaller partner] in a Tory led coalision. Try telling that to the students who voted for them because he promised that he would not raise tuition fees and then proceeded to vote for the biggest ever raise. Try telling that to disabled people who rely on disability benefits that he and his Tory friends abolished soon after getting into office. Try telling that to people who are now struggling to pay 'bedroom subsidy' (commonly known as bedroom tax) that was invented by he and his Tory mates. He may have tolled the death knell for any hopes that the LibDem party has of regaining enough seats to remain a credible 'third force' in British politics.
Playing their own fiddle whilst Europe burns
These European Elections have been an inmitigated disaster for all mainstream parties across Europe. France, Germany, Spain, Greece... almost every country in Western Europe has seen a surge away from the mainstream parties toward both extremes - left and right. With Anti-Europe and Eurosceptic paties now taking their seats in the European Parliament it remains to be seen whether the face of the European Union will change.
If the mainstream reaction to the results announced in 25th May are anything to go by, it will take more than a simple surge toward extremism to make them listen to voters. They are all acting as though it doesn't matter and they will continue to ignore the voters and do whatever they want. The far right and far left are gaining in popularity at a rate that is hard to duplicate at any time since the second world war and I fear that it will only take a charismatic leader in one of these parties to tip Europe into division and conflict again.
The UK has a "first past the post" system for the election of our local and government representatives (Councillors and Members of Parliament [MPs]). This, in essence, means that each constituency (usually a town, city or part of a city) in a general election has a kind of "mini Presidential election" to decide which of the candidates represents the constituency. The candidate who gets the most votes wins and the other parties have no representation in government for that constituency. That means that a party with 45% of the votes could end up having no representation in government. Local (for local councilors) elections are conducted under similar rules.
The European Election is conducted under a Proportional Representation system. Put simply, the country is divided into large "constituencies" that are allocated a number of seats on the European Parliament depending on a complex algorithm that includes the number of voters. Whilst local authorities do take their own votes, these votes are combined within the "constituency" to decide how many seats a party gets. For hypothetical instance; if a constituency consists of 20 cities, towns and villages and has an allocation of 3 EU Parliamentary seats, a specific town may have an overwhelming majority for one party BUT it is the total votes for the constituency that counts. So you may have, say, a landslide victory for one party in urban areas that can be balanced out by a landslide for another party in rural areas. The result is a "consensus" of the votes in the constituency.
2014 European Election
On Thurday 22nd May 2014, the people of Britain voted in what some see as a historic European Election.
Before the election, there were four major parties representing the UK in Europe; Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat and Greens. A few other parties were also represented, including the Scottish Nationalist, Plaid Cymru (Welsh Nationalist), Democratic Unionist Party (Northern Ireland) Sinn Fein (Irish Nationalist) and British Nationalist Party (BNP).
The order Highest to lowest - Seats (% of vote) of representation for the UK in 2009 was
Conservative 26 (27.7%)
UKIP 13 (16.5%)
Labour 13 (15.7%)
LibDem 11 (13.7%)
Greens 2 ( 8.6%)
BNP 2 ( 6.2%)
Others 5 (11.6%)
The order Highest to lowest - Seats change (% of vote) of representation for the UK in 2014 is
UKIP 24 +11 (27.49%)
Labour 20 +7 (25.40%)
Conservative 19 -7 (23.93%)
Greens 3 +1 ( 7.87%)
LibDem 1 -11 ( 6.87%)
BNP 0 -2 ( 1.41%)
Others 3 -2 ( 7.03%)
The United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) and the Green Party are the only two parties that can rejoyce at the result this year.
It is, though, very important to remember that the UK population historically have not taken the European Elections as seriously as the UK General Elections and that the results do not reflect what will happen at next years election.
What these elections prove is that the UK electorate are very unhappy with the three "major" parties and have used these elections as a platform to express that dissatisfaction.
Those who do take Europe seriously are the main voters in this election and it is clear that they do not want our relationship with Europe to continue as it is. Combined with Local Elections results, which also show a marked increase in the UKIP vote, they show the discontent that has been bubbling since the economic collapse in 2007.
Protest Votes
The mainstream parties have tried to dismiss these results as a "protest" but they need to take account of what is being protested against.
They have pointed to a low turnout to prove that it is simply a "protest", so lets have a look at UK voting trends in European elections;
The UK voting turnout since 1979, according to the House of Commons Library is as follows;
1979 32.4%
1984 32.6%
1989 36.4%
1994 36.4%
1999 24.0%
2004 38.5%
2009 34.7%
2014 34.5%
Average 33.7%
By anyone's estimate, the turnout in 2014 was above the average since 1979. So to blame these results on a "low turnout" is not only disingenuous, it is also untrue.
Party Reaction
The big story of the day is that UKIP, a party that is committed to bringing the UK OUT of the European Union (EU) has won. In every constituency they have made gains and have achieved 27.49% of the votes up from 16.5% of votes on 2009 which, in itself was up from 9.2% of the 2004 vote.
This cannot easily be put down to a "protest vote" since it has been a steady increase since they first stood for the European Elections in 1994 when they only achieved 1% of the vote which jumped to 6.96% the following election in 1999.
So, what are the other paries saying about the rise in UKIP support?
Labour
In order to win an outright victory at the next General Election in 2015, the Labour Party should take note that they are only barely above the Conservatives at a time when the Conservatives are certainly not the flavour of the day.
The Labour Party on Europe has offered a very weak claim that they would hold a refurrendum on whether on Europe only if any further sovereign powers are requested by the EU. This has not proved very attractive to Eurosceptics who feel that we have already given too many of our sovereign powers away to Europe. Note, they only say they would hold a referendum about handing more powers over, not on whether to come out.
One would expect that such a surge toward the only party (UKIP) that stands a realistic prospect of getting EU seats that is promising to bring us OUT of Europe would be of concern to the Labour Party. Many of their own voters have gone to UKIP, as evidenced by UKIP gains in most Labour strongholds - including the North East of England and Scotland where previously their support was weak.
They cannot blame it on defection from the Conservative Party because in those same areas the Conservative vote has held, whilst the Liberal Democrat vote has all-but collapsed since they formed a coalition with the Tories in 2010.
But Ed Miliband, Labour leader, has today stated that he will not change his views and that a refurrendum will not be held under a Labour government unless his criterior is met. He has, therefore ruled out giving the people any choice in the matter.
At this stage, it is very possible that giving people what they have voted for - a choice on Europe - could make or break a party and will almost certainly be a factor in how people vote next year. Miliband, then, is treading a very dangerous path and could end up costing his party the next election if he doesn't look very carefully at voting trends.
Conservatives
The Conservative Party has already declared that they will hold a refurrendum on EU membership in 2017 if they are elected as government after they have negotiated change within the EU. They have also decalared that they will campaign for a "NO" to leaving the EU and so have declared their pro-European stance.
David Cameron has, today, said that the British people have spoken and are wanting to see an EU that is working for Britain. I'm not quite sure what election results he is looking at. How much more clear can an electorate be. The vote was overwhelmingly in favour of a party that is pledged to bring us OUT of Europe, yet he interprets this as a vote for staying IN a "working Europe" ?!?
Liberal Democrats
The LibDems came very close to being completely wiped out in the European Elections. With a starting base of 11 seats and 13.7% of the vote (still behind UKIPs 13 seats and 16.5% of the vote), they ended up halving their vote to 6.87% and losing all but 2 of their seats. In the local elections held the same day, they didn't fair any better, losing 307 council seats across the country whilst UKIP gained 161 seats.
They campaigned as The Party of 'IN', meaning that they would not vote for a refurrendum but would keep the UK in the Eu and work for the EU to change. It was a risky strategy that, unfortunately for them, did not pay off.
Asked if he would now consider resigning or at least look again at their strategy, LibDem leader Nick Clegg said that it had never crossed his mind to resign and that the LibDem party would continue on the same path and remain in coalition with the Tories until the General Election next year.
He continued to assert that they were right to go into a coalition with the Tories and that they had done "what they said they would do" whilst [being the smaller partner] in a Tory led coalision. Try telling that to the students who voted for them because he promised that he would not raise tuition fees and then proceeded to vote for the biggest ever raise. Try telling that to disabled people who rely on disability benefits that he and his Tory friends abolished soon after getting into office. Try telling that to people who are now struggling to pay 'bedroom subsidy' (commonly known as bedroom tax) that was invented by he and his Tory mates. He may have tolled the death knell for any hopes that the LibDem party has of regaining enough seats to remain a credible 'third force' in British politics.
Playing their own fiddle whilst Europe burns
These European Elections have been an inmitigated disaster for all mainstream parties across Europe. France, Germany, Spain, Greece... almost every country in Western Europe has seen a surge away from the mainstream parties toward both extremes - left and right. With Anti-Europe and Eurosceptic paties now taking their seats in the European Parliament it remains to be seen whether the face of the European Union will change.
If the mainstream reaction to the results announced in 25th May are anything to go by, it will take more than a simple surge toward extremism to make them listen to voters. They are all acting as though it doesn't matter and they will continue to ignore the voters and do whatever they want. The far right and far left are gaining in popularity at a rate that is hard to duplicate at any time since the second world war and I fear that it will only take a charismatic leader in one of these parties to tip Europe into division and conflict again.

